Peak Oil Primer

May 5, 2008

Here are the resources that I recommend to people who want to learn about peak oil. Right-click to save the reports and other documents locally.

1. Introduction

Start with the Peak Oil Overview at The Oil Drum
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2693

Peak Oil?
Produced by the Australian Broadcasting Company, First Broadcast 2006
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710

Watch "A High-Risk Barrel" by The Business Channel, approx. 50min
This excellent video includes extended interviews with Collin Campbell.
http://novakeo.com/?p=1054&jal_no_js=true&poll_id=10

Read the now-famous Hirsch Report, published by the U.S. Department of Energy (2005).
PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT (1.2MB pdf)

There is another Hirsch report, not in the public domain, available here:
Mitigation of Maximum World Oil Production:Shortage Scenarios, Hirsch, Feb 2008

It identifies several shortage scenarios and establishes a 1:1 correlation between oil production decline and world GDP decline. See "Estimating the Economic Impacts of Peak Oil" for a summary of that report, plus a summary of the Philadelphia Fed paper on oil shocks and the CIBC World Markets report on oil prices in 2008.

2. Impact on Business

If you would like to learn about the impact of peak oil and climate change on your business, register for the free online Executive Briefing here:
http://www.inspiringgreenleadership.com/peak-oil-climate-change-and-busi...

Also watch the Money as Debt video here:
http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

3. Who is saying there is no problem?

If you are interested in a rebuttal to the Cambridge Energy Research Associates report that peak oil is a myth, read: http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/15/83857/186
Bottom line: The main sticking point between CERA and other experts is not that world oil production will peak (everyone agrees on that) but when it will happen and how quickly new unconventional sources can be brought into production. Most peak oil experts believe that, without immediate action, the reduced quantity of oil (the equivalent of a new Saudi Arabia within 10 years of the peak) is too high to be replaced before extremely significant damage to the world economy occurs.

The United States Geological Survey also says there is adequate supply, but their 2000 report has been demonstrated to be wildly optimistic in reality.

4. What is the International Energy Agency saying?

The IEA is unwilling to say that oil is peaking, but their math demonstrates that that is exactly what is happening:

  • By 2015, an extra 37.5 mb/d (million barrels per day) of production will be required. 13.6 mb/d of this is to meet new demand, while 23.9 mb/d is to replace declines in existing oil fields.
  • Oil producing countries have policies that should lead to an extra 25 mb/d by 2015. A further 12.5 mb/d will be required but will not be available.
  • The current trajectory is to have a supply crunch that starts showing itself by 2012.

What they are not saying is that as more super-giants enter decline, the 23.9 mb/d required to make up for declining fields may be optimistic.

The IEA has also announced that it is reviewing its use of the data from the U.S. Geological Survey, which it no longer considers to be trustworthy. Its report from 1998 predicts a peak in conventional oil in 2013 — just before they took on the USGS numbers for their 2001 report.

Fatih Birol Presents the IEA World Energy Outlook 2007, December 2007
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3336

5. Oil and Our Food Supply

If you are interested in the impact of less oil availability on our food supply, see: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3415

6. Megaprojects and Oil Fields

The Megaprojects Task Force is doing the painstaking work of keeping the public Megaprojects Database up-to-date. Notice the marked absence of projects starting in 2013...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_megaprojects

Find a list of the world's oil fields and their reserves here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil/Table_of_largest_oil_fields
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_fields

7. Other Videos

Energy Challenge TV
http://energychallengetv.org
Reports from the ASPO conferences and interviews with some of the primary people discussing peak oil.

8. Mainstream Media

The Coming Crisis, May 5, 2008, Washington Times
http://tinyurl.com/4hex85

The Big Thirst, April 20, 2008, New York Times
http://tinyurl.com/5dp65a

Act now to avoid an energy crunch, November 7, 2007, Financial Times
http://tinyurl.com/2uhfp4

Rising Demand for Oil Provokes New Energy Crisis, November 9, 2007, New York Times
http://tinyurl.com/2tedob

Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production, November 19, 2007, Wall Street Journal
http://tinyurl.com/2khqp3

From Peak Oil To Dark Age?, June 25, 2007, Business Week
http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/07_26/b4040074.htm?ch...

9. Is there an Association?

Yes, see there are several:
Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas:
http://www.peakoil.net (ASPO International)
http://www.aspo-usa.com (ASPO USA)
(links to regional ASPO chapters can be found at www.peakoil.net)

Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
http://www.odac-info.org

10. Other Resources

The Best of The Oil Drum Index
www.inspiringgreenleadership.com/blog/aangel/best-oil-drum-index

For incisive peak oil research and commentary, see the newsletter authored monthly by Richard Heinberg at http://www.richardheinberg.com/museletter. Be sure to read his books: The Party's Over, Powerdown and The Oil Depletion Protocol.

Another good book is The Last Oil Shock, by David Strahan.

11. What can you do?

Governments, businesses and individuals can implement The Oil Depletion Protocol.
http://www.oildepletionprotocol.org

If you are doing so now, stop purchasing voluntary carbon credits (emissions are going to go down anyway and you have a more urgent task). Instead, immediately put as much money as possible into replacing energy-inefficient equipment and lowering your reliance on fossil energy.

Find or form a local post-carbon group at www.relocalize.net.

Create a Peak Oil Taskforce for your city to begin planning how to deal with supply disruptions, lower tax receipts and increasingly expensive energy. Purchase "Post-Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty" for an overview of how to re-engineer cities (available at http://www.postcarbon.org).

Peak Oil Task Forces